Disclosure: I am long Intel, sold my position in AMD for a profit about a week ago

Fast Money was saying, “oh look at that high volume on Intel and look it failed.” According to them this is bad news. I hate when people make these calls based on what they “think”.

I will admit I trust my numbers quite a bit. I also admit that sometimes my numbers are off. But I will also admit when my numbers are off I don’t hesitate to go to plan B. This is the beauty of going by the numbers because when they break down you can go with assurance into the mist.

The crew on Fast Money said that that Intel is a short because of the volume numbers. So I went back and did a calculation of where Intel trades 1 month later after a higher volume day.

Average Standard Deviation
+7.2% 14.4%

The statistics are telling you is that most likely Intel will be up. How about 2 months down the road?

Average Standard Deviation
+10.25% 22.2%

Even two months down the road it is most likely that Intel will be up. Yes there could exist the possibility that Intel could be down, but looking at these numbers I would build my position, and then continue building as Intel goes down.

Could you short Intel? No idea I don’t play shorting (unless it is selling options).

What makes me bullish on Intel (3 year+ time frame) is that Intel has been range bound for the longest time. Intel has through the years expanded and built up a dominate leadership. Intel and its x86 is so entrenched that not even Intel can get away from the x86 instruction set. With the advent of netbooks Intel is continuing its dominance in computing. Add on graphics, the Nokia mobile play and Intel is a long term bullish play.

I personally have no interest in selling my Intel position anytime soon, and I am up 50%. Remember this is a long term play.