This week's reads made two claims that sound like they contradict each other. One says AI compute will stay short of demand through 2028. Another says Opus-class work now costs about a tenth of what it did. Both can be true at once. When they are, the margin moves to new owners, and these pieces...

Across this week's reads, positions that look like separate bets kept turning out to be the same bet. AI lab equity, hyperscaler credit, emerging-market earnings, and even "global" bond yields all trace back to one or two underlying drivers. The pieces disagree about whether that is a mania or a...

Every aggregate I read this week said "fine." The S&P 500 is up double digits, GDP held up through a tariff shock, and AI hasn't dented employment. But each time I opened up the aggregate, the same beam was holding it up: the AI buildout. So the question for this issue is whether we're looking at...

Two smart readers looked at this expansion this week and came away with different confidence levels. One measured how narrow U.S. growth has become and called it fragile. The other finances that growth for a living and puts the odds of it continuing at 85%. Between them sits a bond market charging...

This week's reads share one question: when a headline number improves, did the risk shrink or just change address? Tariff inflation fades while prices stay high. A bank's capital ratio rises while its parent's doesn't. The "riskless" anchor in valuation is now an adjusted estimate. I kept finding...

Anthropic filed its S-1 this week, and everything else I read seemed to be arguing about it. I came away with one question: what exactly is the buyer of this stock paying for? Damodaran says it's a single revenue assumption. Noah Smith says it's a moat that may not exist. Azeem Azhar says the value...

Damodaran spent the month on the difference between pricing a company and valuing one. Once I had that lens, I kept finding the same gap elsewhere. One AI lab's revenue jitters are moving Treasuries more than CPI. Index-level earnings look heroic while the median household goes backward. The...

Nobody in my reading pile disputes that the AI build-out is enormous. They disagree about who pays for it. Ritholtz and Scanlon say you can already see the bill in bond yields. Damodaran says it is accumulating in private credit. Visser argues the whole "debt endgame" frame keeps failing because it...

Intro Back around 2013, my father decided to purchase a gaudy sports car. I don’t exactly know why he did it, but he went to the dealership and bought a 2013 Hyundai Genesis Coupe. It’s a nice car, but it was very obviously meant for presentation over practicality. For nearly a decade and a half we...

Most investors frame Google's AI story around Gemini, Search, and Cloud. That misses the real asset: DeepMind as a research engine that's betting on what comes after the current transformer wave. The market may be underpricing Google's ability to win the next architectural shift in AI — not just...