Karen Finerman could not understand why Intel is doing well, and not Dell. Let me explain what is going on.

I have a metric called the notebook popularity and it is based on the conferences I attend in the US and Europe. Whenever I am in a session room I always make a mental note on what computers the attendees have and how old they are. This metric includes corporations and individuals, and has been pretty robust throughout the years. I have been using this metric since 1996.

Through all of the years I have found that there existed a 1.5 year cycle. My cycle meant that a new notebook maker trend appeared after 1.5 years. While you might think that this churn did not exist, it did as I saw how corporations shifted from one notebook maker to another.

Dell in the early 2000’s was an oddity since it has held up beyond the 1.5 year cycle. Whereas the other notebook makers still adhered to the 1.5 year cycle. It was only a matter of time when people would shift away. So considering the last earnings I am guessing people are shifting away. I know from a personal perspective I have stopped buying Dells, and let me tell you I used to buy quite a few Dells.

Thus I see this as a Dell problem not a market problem.

Who is the new notebook?


Even though most my audience is .NET and Microsoft related I see Apple notebooks and not just one or two.