When I get into something I can become single-minded. Take for example the following article.
Monday’s market euphoria across the world at the terms of the European Union/International Monetary Fund rescue package for the European bond market faded Tuesday as investors sold stocks and took profits on the euro. The worry for investors is whether governments in Greece and Portugal can live up to their end of the bargain and manage to significantly cut government spending in the face of bitter opposition from voters.
Ok again moving the goal posts, but hey what’s not to like on moving the goal posts right.
Michael Gallagher, director of research at IDEAglobal, said he believes the UK will be alright due to its ability to sell government bonds internally.
Steven Barrow, the head of G10 Research at Standard Bank agreed.
“I am confident about the prospects for the pound,” Barrow said. The difference between the UK and Greece, according to Barrow, is that Britain has more room for maneuver.
“The UK can devalue and print money, the UK will not default, the UK will not need the IMF,” he said.
Let’s see the Euro is devaluing, check. The Euro zone can sell its bonds internally, check. The Euro zone has just issued a huge fund. The Eurozone can print money, check. So if the Euro zone can do the same thing as the UK, tell me what’s the difference?
Even the UBS analyst is saying so.
Stephane Deo, the head of European economic research at UBS, is more upbeat on the impact of the rescue package.
"The plan is actually quite impressive," Deo said. "We only need €500 billion to guarantee borrowing for Spain and Portugal, we have €750 billion. The euro still needs to do its work of cutting deficits in countries like Greece, Portugal and Spain and have two years to do so.”
Even Roubini is convinced this could work. You know Dr Doom!
Roubini believes the sheer size of the rescue package will therefore halt the threat of contagion.
The amount, in addition to European Central Bank liquidity facilities and quantitative easing, "comfortably covers the worst case scenario and should thus help fight contagion," he wrote.
The aid package will also force euro zone countries to cut their budget deficits to avoid getting even more into debt, he said.
"In addition, the relatively high interest rates on joint loans should serve as an incentive for euro zone members to put their fiscal house in order without recurring to the facility," Roubini added.
Though what I found most interesting in all of this is that the UK is refusing to help the Euro zone.
There were signs of a backlash on Tuesday against Britain for refusing to take part in the eurozone’s €750bn rescue plan with a senior French policymaker suggesting Europe would think hard about coming to the UK’s help in a sterling crisis.
Poland and Sweden said they would contribute to the €440bn facility of eurozone government-backed loans. Britain refused, although it did give the go-ahead for a €60bn extension of the European Union’s existing balance-of-payments facility to members of the eurozone.
The UK in refusing to work alongside with the EU will come back to haunt them. Many in the EU are already saying, “what is the UK doing really?”
But do you know who I should applaud? The United States, through the IMF they will be helping in this fund. I say United States, thank-you! Good going!
According to the New York Times, Mr Obama was on the phone with the German chancellor on Friday "offering urgent advice" and "some not so subtle prodding" that Europe needed an overwhelming rescue package of the sort Washington came up with in 2008.
"He was trying to convey that he knew these were politically difficult steps that the leaders there had to take, that he had gone through them as well. And that, from his experience, trying to get out ahead as much as possible was the right way to go," one senior administration official familiar with the conversation told the US newspaper.