Let’s go through my 2009 predictions and see how they did.
Land of Perception: Ok this is dead easy, yes I was right. The bears could not believe what was happening and if there ever was a rally that had so much negativity this year was it. You only need to read the bloggers; Peter Schiff, Mish, and Frugal to see that the world is coming to an end even though it has not.
Long Term Investing is Not Dead: Again yupe I was right. Amazing last year people said Buffett was senile, and this year he is considered one of the greatest investors. Ok, yeah now that made sense didn’t it! Buffett is the quintessential long term investor and it is not dead.
The ETF will dominate: Correct again. One of the biggest hedge fund operators piled into a gold. How did he do it? Buying piling into the GLD. Or how about the bullish dollar fund that ran out of shares.
Big fund managers are history, and boutique fund managers are in: This one is a push. I can’t prove this one, one way or the other even though my gut tells me I was right. But proof is in the pudding.
Analysts will be a joke: Oh yeah I was right on this one. Analysts this year could not hit the broad side of barn.
Japan is going down: Yupe this happened at the beginning of the year. Japan collapsed.
China is a dragon: Oh yeah this one came oh so true.
USA will be back: This one is half a push, and half right since people were calling for the collapse of America, and that did not quite happen. Though you cannot say America is bouncing back with full vigour. So I would say I am half right.
Bearish on Canada: This one is half right. At the beginning of the year it looked like Canada was continuing to rock on. But this time it seems that it is hitting Canada harder much later in the cycle. I will call this one three-quarters right. So again this time around I pretty much nailed how 2009 passed, just like how I nailed 2008 pretty well on, and nailed the down turn. Though if you can critique me it is my February 2009 call, and my Tech calls. Though I am not changing my tune on Microsoft. So while an analyst upgraded Microsoft he did so only for the medium term, at least for this product cycle. Anything past that he is not as optimistic.
Normally I would put all of my predictions into a single blog entry, but this time due to the nature of the predictions (they will span multi-years) I am giving each one their own blog entry.