Folks, my prediction on the S&P went beyond my wildest dreams, and basically was spot on. Though the question is was I lucky or not?
One last time let’s look at the prediction.
Let’s look at where the S&P went:
The prediction was made just before March, 2008.
I have been talking to people and the way to prove whether or not I was lucky is to do another prediction and see where the chips may fall. So here goes. First let’s look at my bearish prediction. (The red arrow is where the prediction starts)
In this bearish view we do a sideways shuffle. We might break 1200, and the prediction implies it. From the bearish view 1300 is our resistance, and 1200 is our support. In contrast to the last time I don’t want to discount the bearish view because it is possible. Though if I had to lay my hand in the fire I am going to say the bearish view is bearish, however from a trading and investing perspective one should keep this in mind. Because of this bearish view I am going to keep some cash on the sidelines.
Let’s look at the optimistic prediction:
The optimistic prediction says we will break 1400, break 1500 and then drop. From a bigger perspective we will hit the S&P peak again before doing a pullback. I actually think the optimistic view is possible, because having done some predictions earlier this prediction was a recurring theme.
So now let’s look at the prediction that I think is most realistic.
In this scenario we approach, touch, maybe break slightly 1400, before slipping back to 1250. And from 1250 we rebound and climb break 1400 before doing another pullback. Beyond that I don’t know. The them is that we climb, pullback, climb, and pullback. Though from what I can glean from the various simulations is that we don’t create lower lows.