I have become completely skeptical of analysts. I am even at the point thinking, what their motives are. Here is an interesting example:
An immature chipset solution from Infineon Technologies AG may be at the root of reported connection problems with Apple, Inc.’s 3G iPhone, Nomura analyst Richard Windsor said in a note to clients Tuesday. He said some iPhone users are having trouble getting a 3G connection and hanging on to it.
Really Richard? The same Richard who said this?
Reports of non-responsive spots on the iPhone’s touch-screen raise concerns over the device’s long-term viability, an analyst told clients in a note Friday. Nomura International analyst Richard Windsor said the iPhone’s screen makes use of a chemical reaction to provide touch sensitivity based on heat. The technology, he said, was bought from a defunct Finnish company that had attempted to produce a similar device, but gave up after finding the chemical film began to degrade and lose its sensitivity after extensive use. Windsor said the problem typically appeared within 3-6 months. Apple was likely aware of the problem and should have fixed it, he wrote, but said only time will tell whether all is well with the iPhone touch-screen.
How much of a problem has this been? Not much! Richard unless you happen to have engineering creds, please avoid the technical explanations, otherwise your are just another n00b.
Or are you another Apple naysayer? I am an Apple naysayer as well, but I do try to avoid spreading untruths. This is why I dislike analysts as I really wonder how unbiased they are? The next example is the Kindle. This guy is saying that the Kindle will be like the iPod. Really? How is that?
Ask yourself the following, what is an iPod? It is a device to listen to music. What is a Kindle? A device to read books! Now do the math on how many people listen to music and how many people read. Answer is people read quite a bit less than people listen to music. Thus the Kindle can NEVER be an iPod, but it does not mean that the Kindle cannot sell well.
What I think is happening is that common sense is leaving statistics. Recently said on CNBC statistics speaking 100% of people in 40 years will be overweight. Why?
The researchers found that if the trends from the past 30 years continue, then 86 percent of American adults could be overweight by 2030 with an obesity rate of 51 percent. By the year 2048, all Americans could be somewhat overweight.
Really ALL Americans will be somewhat overweight? What about the athletes? Remember the term ALL was used. What is this sort of statistic? I call it The Power of Nightmare type prediction or when used in the positive sense, The Power of Rose Colour Glasses. These sorts of statistics and analysis are over the top and not realistic. They just add on a bunch of numbers and try to associate one set of orthogonal statistics with the case that they are trying to make. So whenever these sorts of statistics are given, ignore them since the truth lies somewhere in the middle.