Based on seven months of investment our ROI is 26% as that is when I jumped in this year. I have to say that I am very happy about this. This ROI is based on funds, stocks, and bonds throughout Europe, and the America’s.
As of today my positions are as follows:
- 66.8% Cash
- 16.8% Bonds
- 16.3% Stock Funds
As you can see we are sitting on cash. My opinion is “Cash is king!” I have locked into profits and am waiting for the down swing.
I am nervous because on Friday the books close and the profits are calculated. After Friday I am expecting a pullback. I am thinking the pullback will happen between then and beginning of February. My guess is that fourth quarter earnings will be below expectations and will cause a sell off. Earnings will be good, but due to the fact its the 4’th quarter people will be disappointed.
My investment strategy for next year are guaranteed investment products. You might have seen these products in that they say you can gain, but have nothing too loose. They offer more upside than fixed income products, but they loose nothing.
Here are my thoughts for 2007:
- First half world-wide market bearish.
- Second half neutral, and the big if are the South American, European and Asian economies.
- I am optimistic (not bullish) on the European and Asian economies. A big concern is if the non-American markets can break the habit of following the American markets. Traders are saying it will happen 2007.
- Second half American market bearish due to falling real-estate prices and consolidation in the American consumer. What I even wonder about is if traders will sell equities to cover losses in real estate?
- I would not touch real estate with a ten foot pole. I would wait to buy real estate once the Fed has lowered the interest rate one or two points. At that point in time you will get cheaper rates and a dropping of rates means the Fed wants to get the economy revved up again.
I am not bearish in the recession sense. I am bearish in the consolidation and soft landing sense. The market had a very good run since end of May and a break is needed. I am also very very cautious because so many are now saying, “Oh now is the time to get in…” Well the contrarian in me says, “now is the time to get out.”