Articles Written by Jason Coleman
At $35, Google Finance puts the Garmin PE at ~8.5. That’s just too low for a company with 25% annual growth.
I made some money riding this stock from about $45 to $80. I kicked myself for not holding it to $120. I bought some up there and was quickly stopped out for a small loss. And now I’m glad I haven’t owned it for a while and have a chance to back up the truck.
Before I do so, I wonder if anyone out there can tell me what I’m missing. Here are some reasons for the low GRMN price I’m reading on message boards and blogs:
I originally posted this on the Google Finance discussion boards and then though I’d fix it up a bit before posting… but well anyway…
I was bearish on Google before the last earnings call.
I felt that Google would miss some numbers due to recent changes
they’ve made in the “clickable area” of their ads and their PageRank
formula. Both changes were good long term (since they’ll help combat
click fraud and spammy publishers - and generally increase the quality
of the ads). But the changes came with some immediate cost to the
bottom line in the short term.
I am now bullish on Google for the same reasons. Or really because (1)
it wasn’t that bad and (2) the long term is already here.
The PPI report came out today. While we are doing better than Zimbabwe, things are still a little scary.
I was having dinner with Chris last weekend, and I expressed concern over US inflation. He asked me what the numbers were, and I didn’t have them handy. Here are the numbers from a MarketWatch article on the January 2008 PPI report.
First, the most concerning number of all:
Year over year, the PPI is up 7.4% — the fastest pace since 1981. Also on an annualized basis, the core PPI is up 2.3%.
And here are some more details found at the end of the article: (after the jump)
That clever dude Ugly is at it again. With the Zimbabwean dollar reaching a record exchange rate of around $20 Million Zimbabwe Dollars per $1 US Dollar, Ugly has decided to repurpose a web classic by launching the Million Zimbabwean Dollar Homepage. I used it to launch an ad for my newly created MoneyShui.
Google will miss expected earnings numbers tomorrow (IMO). There are two recent “shoot your own foot” actions from Google that may affect their short term performance. Overall, I agree with the changes, but I wouldn’t be swinging into earnings tomorrow.
(1) Google changed the “hit area” of their AdSense ads. Before the entire ad area was clickable. Now just the heading and url are.
There are mixed reports on whether or not this is affecting overall click through rates (CTR) and earnings. On InvestorGeeks, our CTR went from 2-2.25% in September and October to 1.25-1.5% in December and January. Our overall earnings are down 40%.
Most of Google’s revenue comes from their own search page which likely had smaller drops (if at all). But if other sites have had slowdowns like we have, this would eat into Googles earnings growth.
In the long run I think this is a good move, as it will cut down on fraud… eventually leading to more advertisers and higher ad rates. In the shot term, however, folks are taking a hit.
(read on for reason #2)
I just wanted to do a nice recap of the donations we made on behalf of InvestorGeeks in 2007. All totaled, we gave a tad over $2000 in 2007. We’re looking to nearly double that in 2008… as long as our traffic and advertising relationships hold up.
2007 InvestorGeeks Donations
- $400 to The Arthritis Foundation for Steve’s Race
- $300 to The Canadian Breast Cancer Foundation for my cousin Candice’s Run for the Cure
(these below were squeezed in at the end of the year and previously unannounced on the blog here)
- $300 to Karen’s Walk, a 5K Run/Walk that sponsors heart failure research in memory of Karen Decker. Karen was a former classmate of Frank’s at RIT.
- $200 to the One Laptop Per Child program through the Give One Get One program. We haven’t gotten our laptop yet, but I’ll let you know when I do. We’ll likely play with it a bit and find some way to donate it or maybe give it away in a contest.
- $400 to Child’s Play, a charity that gives video games and other toys to sick children in hospitals across the United States.
- $400 to NPR, specifically WNYC 93.9 out of New York. That’s the station Chris listens to and one I listened to when I was working in New Jersey.
For 2008, I’d like to donate some money to my alma mater Haverford College. I’m also training to swim/bike/run a triathalon this summer. If that goes well, I’m sure I could find a cause to swim, bike, or run for instead of getting Steve and Candice to do the hard work.
Any other charity ideas for 2008?
Thursday, Jan. 24, 2008
by Jason
Got this email from a fan. And since none of the current writers are Canadian, I thought I’d throw this out there.
BTW, RSP stands for “Registered Retirement Savings Plan” and seems to be a Canadian 401k. I’m sure a lot of the standard retirement plan advice would apply, but we’re looking for a Canadian perspective.
Hey InvestorGeeks
My name’s Gavin Adamson. I write occasionally for the Globe and Mail
and this time I’m writing a piece about what part online - DIY
investing plays in RSP building.
Not sure if any of you guys have an online RSP account, but if you do,
I’d be interested to speak with you. Here I’m looking for a chat about
what sorts of tools/data research you use to make RSP decisions. Do you
use your online brokerage site research and tools? Are they good?
If you don’t have an online, RSP account, or you’re not interested, I’d
appreciate an announcement on your site that I’m looking to speak to
someone. They can get in touch with me at my website
Thanks a lot
Gavin
Saturday, Jan. 19, 2008
by Jason
Here is an email exchange I had with my step father. Note: my mother works as a Bed Bath and Beyond store manager.
Original email back in November:
BBBY is down to 29.5 your thoughts?
-Kevin (11/26/2007)
And then my response:
