I Don’t Trust the Market

Since I cashed out of equities about two months ago I have waited and watched for this pullback. I don’t trust the market because it seems to have forgotten about economics as illustrated by the referenced article.

I understand the market ignoring the slide in factory orders as a blip, but the out-pacing of wages to productivity is a problem. That is called inflation, and it is bad inflation, namely core inflation. I have noticed this core inflation problem at the stores as they have been scrimping on the sales, even if it is ever so slightly. I do the shopping in the household and I notice that prices have been moving upwards, again ever so slightly. As long as we have a core inflation problem there will be no interest rate drop, that means housing will be hurt and that means problems with our economy.

What Gives With Interest Only Being Better Version 2?

My original version of this blog entry has been deleted because I did find some errors in my spreadsheet. I saw them when I was explaining what I thought I had found while doing my calculations. The new calculations are not as I thought they were, but still some interesting things can be extracted from (more…)

GM Buying Chrysler?

There is a rumour going around that GM might be buying (2) Chrysler. The rumour was based on something things that Zetsche (CEO DaimlerChrysler) said: Speculation about the future of Chrysler started earlier this week when DaimlerChrysler CEO Dieter Zetsche revealed the future of the money-losing Chrysler division was being studied, and that the company was open to (more…)

AMD – It’s in Your Phone

Well not yet, but that is the plan. And I wonder if investors realize the potential. My guess is that Advanced Micro Devices (really their recently bought ATI division) is poised to make a bunch of money putting graphics processors into mobile phones, and this fact is not fully priced into the stock.

I wonder if investors are able to see past the PC market, when they think about AMD. It seems that all of the focus is on their competition with Intel. Meanwhile, the graphics card market is still ripe for growth. People, I think, finally realize that ATI and Nvidia supply chips for gaming consoles, and that part of the business is priced in. But what about the cell phone market? And the cell phone market is much bigger than the gaming console market. It may even be much bigger than the PC market, and with faster turnarounds.

My Past Predictions On The State of Wireless

I saw an article at MarketWatch that talked about 3G and how it has not lived up to expectations. Well, I could have told you that in 2002. I know that I said that in 2002 because in 2002 I gave a presentation at the Ann Arbor Computing Society entitled “The State of Wireless.”    In (more…)

Pay Attention: We are on the Edge

Last week (1,2) I talked about how the DJI should be breaking through the 12,700 barrier. We did not break through it, and I starting to become concerned. Some technical analysts will draw pretty pictures with lines in multiple directions, but we are hitting a resistance point. I like technical analysis, but use it in (more…)

Wary Of Google

A while back somebody asked me what I thought of Google stock. My thoughts, then as now is; good company, but I would not trade their stock. Today I read something in Business Week that confirms why I am not a fan of Google stock.

The article talked about how employees will be able to sell their options instead of stock. Interesting idea, but I am not completely happy about it. The following comment from the article bothered me quite a bit.

Under Google’s Transferable Stock Option program, employees could sell their stock options on the semi-private marketplace much the way public options are sold today. That would let employees potentially reap more than if they merely exercised and then sold the securities. Say an employee holds an option with a strike price of $400, meaning it can be purchased for $400 and then resold at a higher price. If Google’s stock is trading at $500, an investor might pay $150 for that option, betting that the stock will rise well past $500 during the life of the option. The employee selling the option could net an immediate $150. An employee exercising and then selling the same option would net only $100, the difference between the strike price and the current price.

Automated Trading Algorithms

For the past two months I have been writing my own automated trading system. Two weeks ago I slowly started trading using manual techniques based on data generated by my software. The initial results are very good, but I am tempering down my glee because I was conservative and focused. It’s like those drugs you test to cure cancer that work in smaller trials, but fail in mass scale. My return has been about 33%, with 95% of the trades being in the money. Being the skeptic I am quite nervous about these results because they are too good to be true. Yet I see the monies in my brokerage account and think, interesting. Time will tell if my software is worth its money.

The Buy List: Keep Track of the Big Guys

TheBuyList.com is a nice, simple website with just one purpose: to show you if mutual funds are trading the stocks you’re tracking.

Just enter a ticker and click a button. You’ll be shown a table of “recent” transactions of that stock made by “the top rated mutual funds”. The table shows you how many shares were bought or sold, the name and ticker of the fund, and the general “family” of fund.

Book Review: The Little Book of Value Investing

The Little Book that Beats the MarketWiley is trying to turn their hit Little Book that Beats the Market (discussion, Amazon.com) into a series: Little Book Big Profits. The second book in the series, The Little Book of Value Investing, is written by Christopher H. Browne and focused on value investing.

While Browne obviously has the pedigree and experience to write a book on value investing, the lack of practical examples ruins the potential of the book. The basics of the value investing philosophy are presented well and in a way that is easy to read. However, the author seems more interested in convincing the reader into buying into value-based mutual funds than teaching us how to become value investors on our own. The book would be good for current value investors looking for more arguments against market timing and day trading strategies. Aspiring value investors will have to go elsewhere for instruction, though The Little Book of Value Investing may be a good, light start for readers new to the concept of value investing.