Patterns in Random Numbers

At iTulip they had an interesting posting regarding the currency markets. > "We are fast reaching a stage at which elegant quantitative models won’t determine who survives, in fact, those that tend to rely on models in this environment may be most likely to be shining shoes sooner rather than...

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Trading Badly

I'm in a funk. You ever get to that place where you want to reverse every one of your trade ideas? I'm there now. I sell GRMN at $81 and it goes to $103. I buy BBBY for some reason at $36 and it goes low. Then I watch it bounce, set a stop loss that gets hit at $34.74, and watch it have a nice up...

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If I Were Bernake What Would I Do?

I was puzzling and thinking if I were Bernake what would I do? Many are crying raise the darn interest rates. Many are saying lower to give the companies a break. Bernake though does not strike me as an individual that leaves a statement. He strikes me as an individual that tries to do the right...

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The Bernanke Put

Fingers crossed. He should moderate his language, open the possibility of a rate cut, and send the markets higher. I hope he keeps his mouth closed, talks about inflation and the US dollar, and keeps rates right where they are. Wishful thinking? Perhaps. However, I just have a vibe that he isn't...

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Bear Market? and Go Fly a Kite, Jim Cramer

I think Jim Cramer lost it, and I don't quite understand what Jim Cramer is recommending. > In his "Stop Trading" segment on Street Signs today, Cramer said the nation's central bank is "asleep" and should immediately "relieve the pressure" on financial firms and the nation's home owners who are...

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Managing Multiple Strategies

So the other day, the big sell off started. And it's arguable that it's just beginning. Spurred on by Phil's post, I considered selling out of everything. It made sense: I thought everything was going down, so I should sell. But it also didn't make sense. One thing I've pointed out before is my...

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Bounce

Hey everyone, We are seeing a nice bounce in the markets this morning. The S&P500 is at 1485 as I write this(!!!). If you look at the 5 day chart, you will see this could take us back to part way through the crash we saw last week. The market is saved! To me, this feels like a dead cat bounce - one...

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Separating Prediction From Fact

We are told time and time again that you can't predict the market. And time and time again people try to predict the market. Many model the market using stochastic principles, and use it to predict the market. I find this completely amusing (stochastics is about multiple destinys based on a single...

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SDS@$54

Well, I was right (see Wednesday's post). That at least feels good. However, I thought the market would make a decent recovery. I had raised my limit price to $51.20 (from $50.20) yesterday, realising the recovery was probably not going to be as strong as I wished. However, when I logged on tonight...

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To Buy or To Sell: That is the Question...

Do you buy or do you sell? Steve says the following: > Here’s the deal, if you felt Apple was a good buy at $130 and it drops to $120, why would you sell? Unless some really bad long term news came out, this is a buy trigger to me. Not only does it lower the cost basis of your original purchase,...

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