A while back somebody asked me what I thought of Google stock. My thoughts, then as now is; good company, but I would not trade their stock. Today I read something in Business Week that confirms why I am not a fan of Google stock.

The article talked about how employees will be able to sell their options instead of stock. Interesting idea, but I am not completely happy about it. The following comment from the article bothered me quite a bit.

Under Google’s Transferable Stock Option program, employees could sell their stock options on the semi-private marketplace much the way public options are sold today. That would let employees potentially reap more than if they merely exercised and then sold the securities. Say an employee holds an option with a strike price of $400, meaning it can be purchased for $400 and then resold at a higher price. If Google’s stock is trading at $500, an investor might pay $150 for that option, betting that the stock will rise well past $500 during the life of the option. The employee selling the option could net an immediate $150. An employee exercising and then selling the same option would net only $100, the difference between the strike price and the current price.

For the past two months I have been writing my own automated trading system. Two weeks ago I slowly started trading using manual techniques based on data generated by my software. The initial results are very good, but I am tempering down my glee because I was conservative and focused. It’s like those drugs you test to cure cancer that work in smaller trials, but fail in mass scale. My return has been about 33%, with 95% of the trades being in the money. Being the skeptic I am quite nervous about these results because they are too good to be true. Yet I see the monies in my brokerage account and think, interesting. Time will tell if my software is worth its money.

TheBuyList.com is a nice, simple website with just one purpose: to show you if mutual funds are trading the stocks you’re tracking.

Just enter a ticker and click a button. You’ll be shown a table of “recent” transactions of that stock made by “the top rated mutual funds”. The table shows you how many shares were bought or sold, the name and ticker of the fund, and the general “family” of fund.

Wiley is trying to turn their hit Little Book that Beats the Market (discussion, Amazon.com) into a series: Little Book Big Profits. The second book in the series, The Little Book of Value Investing, is written by Christopher H. Browne and focused on value investing.

While Browne obviously has the pedigree and experience to write a book on value investing, the lack of practical examples ruins the potential of the book. The basics of the value investing philosophy are presented well and in a way that is easy to read. However, the author seems more interested in convincing the reader into buying into value-based mutual funds than teaching us how to become value investors on our own. The book would be good for current value investors looking for more arguments against market timing and day trading strategies. Aspiring value investors will have to go elsewhere for instruction, though The Little Book of Value Investing may be a good, light start for readers new to the concept of value investing.

I was watching a financial call in show last week. The financial “expert” examined stock after stock. Many he dismissed because of the company’s debt load. It didn’t matter why they were carrying the debt, how recent the debt, or what kind of debt it was, his opinion was that all debt was bad.

What a load of hooey.

Is it possible to predict the quarterly earnings for a business, or a giant multi-billion dollar conglomerate accurately down to a single/narrow cent-per-share figure? A large number of investment analysts out there sure think so! After all, who wants to be the sucker who can only give you a broad earnings range, when “I” can give you the exact figure, so “I” must be better. So pay “me”, and hire “me”! And may god strike it down if that company misses “my” estimate by even one cent! It’s not “my” estimation error, it’s their fault! (Returning back to normal) I’m sorry, I don’t know what came over me just now!
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But can you hear the analysts tooting their own horns as they predict earnings? And when did companies think it was a good idea to help these overpaid statisticans along with corporate guidances? Is it a good idea? I’d love to hear from you, but I’ll first share my perpsective!

I’d like to invite you to look at a recent, not atypical, four day chart of a stock. In this particular case, it’s SiRF Technology Holdings (SIRF).

As you can see, the stock gapped down from the $25-$26 it had been trading at to the $19-$20 range. You see this kind of thing all the time when “bad” news comes out.

The question I’d like to raise today is: who set the price?

Mr. Market is an Idiot. On June 21st, I posted an article “Thinking About Garmin” in which I proposed that Garmin is uniquely positioned as the leader in a technology that is “crossing the chasm” from early adopter to mainstream. I was expecting a stellar earning report this week, which is exactly what Garmin delivered. Only to see the stock go down.

So I took another look at my analysis.