InvestorGeeks

Watch List Notes for 6JUN07

by Jason

I thought I would share my watch list notes again. Here’s what I wrote out this morning before the market opened. It was a really tough day out there, so I’m going to have to re-evaluate a bunch tomorrow. Hopefully this is helpful to you guys.

AMGN
No sell signals. Test of 30DMA coming up. Let’s bust through it. Support rising at $55.

SOOOO much support in the $50-$55 range. Could trade sideways until the 30DMA catches down. Looks like some great risk-reward over 1-2years though. Stoch buy, RSI buy, MACD almost a buy. Need to read the news on this giant. Positive article in BusinessWeek recently.

GRMN
Looks like a pull back to at least the 10DMA ($61.50) is likely. Maybe pull back to the 30DMA ($58). But it doesn’t matter. Trend is up, and we’re in this for the long haul. Sell on stoch. No sell on MACD yet. RSI could bounce buy. Phil Town likes this stock, so I’m going to trade it like he would (or like I would imagining I’m him… minus the rafting and babes).

(note: GRMN did well today. The stock has lately been a poster child for “relative strength”: stays flat or small gains on down days, jumps up big on up days.)

AMD
This stocks still a mess right now. Better opportunities out there.

ERTS
Turnaround is looking good. A nice close above the 30DMA would be very nice and bullish.

Uh oh. Earnest Adams (well-respected old-time game developer and former EA employee) is diversifying his stock away from ERTS. Interesting read at Gamasutra. Bottom line is that EA is a big company now and better be prepared for changes in the distribution channel.

(note: And yet ERTS was one of the few stocks up today. Maybe the TA was too strong. I need to recalculate my MOS on this stock and make sure the downside isn’t too great for this stock.)

EBAY
Nothing to report. Not checking in on this lately.

QQQQ
Hammer pattern yesterday. Can’t tell if it’s hammer or hanging man; the top is equal to yesterday’s close. (technically a little lower) Handle bounces nicely off of 10DMA.No sell on stoch or MACD. I’m looking for some nice action today.

ACN
Looking nice. Why did I stop following this stock?

Full Disclosure: I currently own 60 shares of AMGN, 90 shares of QQQQ, 50 shares of ERTS, and 75 shares of GRMN across various accounts. I’m a hack. Folks should do their own research before investing based on this information. Good luck.

How bad will things be tomorrow? I’m about fully invested right now… or at least all of my liquid cash. I have some cash waiting in an E*Trade savings account for tax time next year and another chunk of cash that I’m trying to figure out what to do with, but nothing that I could invest within 5 business days.

After tomorrow morning, I may come back and write about what I might sell and when, what my targets are, and how I can make sure I don’t lose all of my recent gains (up almost 10% in Q2).

My Watchlist Notes from Yesterday

by Jason

I’m getting back into trading a bit. Here are my watchlist notes from yesterday. Be warned, I’m a total hack. Even I’m going to do more research before using this stuff. Comments appreciated.

AMD
- Buy now. Watch intraday for bounce. Supports at $15, $13.50, $10. Half now, half on dip?

ERTS
- Buy soon. 10DMA at $50, 30DMA at $51. Then all arrows green. 1-year chart looks brutal. Support at $48.Resistance at $55. Break through that looks goot.

EBAY
- Hipegg says buy.Short-term down. Buy at $34 (30DMA). Support from 200DMA at $31.

QQQQ
- Very bullish. Look for intraday pullback and put the money in.

These are all tech-related because… well… I know tech better. Buy what you know. My IRA and other portfolios are mostly in index funds right now, so this is all “play money” or “mad money” or “risky biz portfolio” stuff. I’m most excited about QQQQ and ERTS. I think they’re a bit safer, but that doesn’t mean anything.

Also, congrats to the folks who stuck it out with KRY (not me). I’d be taking some profits in the $5 range.

UPDATE: I’ve bought 90 shares of QQQQ with my trading account and 50 shares of ERTS with my IRA. Peace.

AI and Trading

by Christian

I was reading a blog entry on CPPTrader that was referencing an article from Bloomberg. I am a newbie with respect to trading, but with respect to AI I have been a few times around the block. It was something that I studied in University and have had an attraction to for a long time. I guess I am lazy and would love to write a program that “thinks” for me. As a sidenote I am using AI in my algorithmic trading software, but in a different context.

(more…)

Avoiding Getting Burnt

by Christian

Colin brought up the following point:

Christian, it is extremely interesting to read your thoughts on neural nets. I’ve been looking at Neural Nets in a piece of software called Merchant of Venice - http://mov.sourceforge.net/ . Beyond that, what’s interesting is that as humans, we can look at current day situations and have an innate sense that history is repeating itself, yet there are these outlying situations that break those rules - like Amazon’s recent performance.

How to put that “sense” into code and avoid getting burned by the outliers is the real rub

(more…)

Stochastics and Multiple Realities

by Christian

Tom gave a reply that I think deserves more attention. Tom made the following comment to one of my blog entries.

One more thing, if the market is random per the stochastic process and you can’t find patterns in a market where patterns don’t exist, then why do we have trends? A trend is a pattern in my opinion.

If you look at the definition of stochastic process at wikipedia it does not say random as in completely random walk. What the definition is saying is that at each and every point multiple realities can occur.

(more…)

Is the Model Important?

by Christian

Tom wrote the following comment:

Christian, great article! I was building an ATS myself but had to put it on the back burner. Do you dabble in neural nets and AI modeling as well? I predominately use YALE, an open source data mining, machine learning software to build currency, futures, and stock models.

This helps me identify emerging market trends and trade (discretionary) accordingly.

(more…)

Quant Based Trading: Good News, and Bad News

by Christian

For the past eight months or so I have been writing my own quant based trading system. I like to call it quant based trading, and not automated trading because quant implies analysis and some automated trading. Trading based on quantative analysis is becoming the norm, not the exception. Automated trading implies auto-pilot and not as much analysis. If you don’t know much about automated trading it is time that you start learning about it.Now brokerage companies are starting to release automated trading software that you can use to devise your own strategies. For example, TDAmeritrade has released such software. I use Interactive Brokers as an online brokerage, which has an application programming interface allowing me to write my automated trading software. Or you can buy software that allows you to write scripts.

(more…)

My Thoughts on the KKR and FDC Deal

by Christian

Yet another mega-private-equity take-over. This time its KKR buying FDC for nearly 30 billion dollars. I look at this deal and wonder how it is going to work. Business Week thinks this is a great deal.

(more…)

Ever Wonder Why the 2.0% Inflation Target is Important?

by Christian

You will often read in the news comments like the following.

Carl Tannenbaum said, “I think chances are evenly split between a cut and a hike right now it looks like inflation is coming down - but core inflation is still stubbornly above the Fed’s 2% target.

Why 2%, why not 3%, why not 1.12345%? After all 2% is some number somebody thought would be a good number. Well, the 2% number is based on a central bank strategy.

(more…)

My Head Says One Thing, But My Gut Says Another Thing!

by Christian

One of the things that I do to rationalize positions is take the opposite side and create my own debate. I often do this when my head says one thing, but my gut feeling is saying something else. So for this blog entry I am going to spill my guts and hope somebody wants to add their own two cents.

Ok, here is my problem that my gut keeps telling me, and its from from a comment Greenspan made.

Alan Greenspan said the housing downturn is more of a problem than credit quality and said the lending worries would be fixed if house prices rose 10 per cent.

Greenspan has been saying quite a few things lately with some things being that we may have a recession in the fall. I was reading in Business Week Greenspan is behaving the way he is because Bernake can’t tell the truth.

(more…)