Articles filed under 'General'
The PPI report came out today. While we are doing better than Zimbabwe, things are still a little scary.
I was having dinner with Chris last weekend, and I expressed concern over US inflation. He asked me what the numbers were, and I didn’t have them handy. Here are the numbers from a MarketWatch article on the January 2008 PPI report.
First, the most concerning number of all:
Year over year, the PPI is up 7.4% — the fastest pace since 1981. Also on an annualized basis, the core PPI is up 2.3%.
And here are some more details found at the end of the article: (after the jump)
Over the course of this month I will be posting a series of articles on the Chinese economy. Just so you all know, I have been studying here at Beida for the semester or as foreigners call it Beijing (Peking) University and have come across some interesting realizations about China and their economy. While I do think this double digit growth they have been going through it true even by United States calculations, we do not see what this growth actually looks like and how long this is sustainable for. We see their stock market quadruple, and ADR’s skyrocket on U.S. capital markets but you get a new perspective when you are living in it. The questions that I will be looking at and the series or articles I will be posting will be on a wide range of topics about the Chinese economy. Please feel free to post comments and or suggestions of future articles for this month. Stay tuned for new articles.
Saturday, Nov. 10, 2007
by Alex
1. We have a new author! His name is Alex, and he’s already published a great article on alternative energy that is getting some attention in the comments. View the great discussion over there.
2. People are signing up for the mailing list. Good. I still have no idea what we’ll do with it. In the meantime, you can win a chance to get some free books and know that we won’t be giving away your email address or selling it to spammers, etc. Please sign up. I want to keep in touch with y’all.
3. Speaking of keeping in touch, we’re thinking of ways to bring the forums back. We may hire someone to spam protect the old forums or move to a thirdparty solution. If you have suggestions, speak up in the comments.
4. Also, we’re considering updating the blog design and layout. It’s something we’ve dreamed about for a while. We even have a v2 that is 80% complete, although totally outdated. We’d start from scratch to build a better site that will help you navigate all the good content we’ve built up over the years.
5. I AM the real Jason Coleman. This guy is the Fake Steve Jobs.
6. Ugly got a job and I miss his Investing posts at UglyChart.com. He has been posting links more often, and even just linked to DateSpaces. He’s supposed to start "position trading" November 1st.
7. DateSpaces.com is a site that could work. It’s a location search engine with a focus on dating. If you live in New York City, check it out. If not, complain and get them to expand to your city.
Wednesday, Oct. 31, 2007
by Jason
In the middle of March I had an inkling that all was not well with my thinking. My thinking was that the market would pullback and that the global economy would slow down. Well I was wrong, and in the referenced blog entry I talked about what my head told me, and what my gut was telling me. It seems that my gut was telling me the right thing. As a result I have become a bear in bull’s clothing. This means I grudgingly accept the bull rally, but I don’t like it one bit!
The problem is inflation and getting it under control. Yes we can argue about how to measure inflation, but the reality is that there is inflation and I see it everyday in our pocket books. Low inflation, or virtually no inflation is good for the economy because it keeps the economy efficient. I had a gut feeling that Bernake was an inflation dove and cared more about the well being of the individual people. (more…)
Friday, May. 18, 2007
by Christian
Ford is dire straits and we knew that. So what do they do? Sell Aston Martin! Idiots!!!! I am being harsh because I have not seen that much lunacy in a while. Aston Martin is profitable for Ford, and they sell what is profitable. What does Ford keep? Whatever is loosing money.
The Premier Auto Group, bogged down primarily by Jaguar, handed in a pretax loss of $344 million. Mulally, Ford’s top executive since September, has said Jaguar is not currently for sale.
Annual production dipped as low as just 46 cars in 1992. But the brand [Aston Martin] has enjoyed a resurgence this decade — a record 7,000 Aston Martins were sold worldwide last year and a similar number are expected to be purchased in 2007.
Oh yes let’s keep the stuff that is bleeding Ford and sell what is profitable for Ford! Yes that is smart, NOT!
(more…)
Wednesday, Mar. 14, 2007
by Christian
Since I cashed out of equities about two months ago I have waited and watched for this pullback. I don’t trust the market because it seems to have forgotten about economics as illustrated by the referenced article.
I understand the market ignoring the slide in factory orders as a blip, but the out-pacing of wages to productivity is a problem. That is called inflation, and it is bad inflation, namely core inflation. I have noticed this core inflation problem at the stores as they have been scrimping on the sales, even if it is ever so slightly. I do the shopping in the household and I notice that prices have been moving upwards, again ever so slightly. As long as we have a core inflation problem there will be no interest rate drop, that means housing will be hurt and that means problems with our economy.
(more…)
Wednesday, Mar. 7, 2007
by Christian
I saw an article at MarketWatch that talked about 3G and how it has not lived up to expectations. Well, I could have told you that in 2002. I know that I said that in 2002 because in 2002 I gave a presentation at the Ann Arbor Computing Society entitled “The State of Wireless.”
In my presentation I stated the following conclusions:
- 3G is dead and we will talk more about 4G before 3G ever gains any traction.
- Wireless networks will become incompatible with each other.
- Hot Spot is a cheap single world wide standard
The wireless networks incompatibility did not happen, but oodles of Wireless networks did spring up (eg WiMax, BlueTooth, GPRS, Edge, 802.11 a, b, g, etc). The hardware vendors did their job and ensured most devices could talk multiple wireless network standards. I did not expect the hardware vendors to play ball. At the time I thought Qualcomm would mess things up, but the reality has been that Qualcomm has been turned into a fringe player (which I knew would happen).
Though, I did say 3G is dead before it even started. As my presentation said the problem was that 3G cost too darn much. The consumer would not be willing to support such expensive infrastructure if there are cheaper alternatives.
Hotspot technology I knew would become popular, and knew that in 1999 because of a German university study.
A German study in 1997-1999 found that people do not want information everywhere, but in specific places
–Study involved student information management habits at a University
–Café, Airport, Airplane, Train station, etc
–At other places information is a bonus, but not something that you would pay large amounts of money for
Now hotspot technologies are a given and people expect to find “hotspots.”
Ok enough of the past, what about the future?
The article says that 4G is not an issue because content providers, consumers and network operators don’t want to hear about. Network providers want the 3G infrastructure to pay off.
But here are the facts, 3G is dead, was exploited by the governments to attract huge license fees to fatten their spending tendencies. This in turn means that 3G will be too darn expensive! 3G is a white elephant.
4G technologies like HSPA, Wi-Max or LTE are going to revolutionize the meaning of connection and you can blame it on one device. The iPhone! I am critical of the iPhone, and I still think it is a dud! I still don’t think the economices and market analysis of the iPhone works. But what the iPhone will do is give the phone device makers a kick in the butt to provide content and accessibility better than the iPhone. This is already happening in Europe with many music labels, telcos, and phone makers providing a cross-Europe iTunes competitor.
The iPhone is scaring the pants off the big companies and that is a good thing! To keep Apple and the iPhone at bay the big telcos and telephone makers will adopt 4G because they will preceive that they have no choice. Those telcos that do not adopt 4G will be at a serious disadvantage.
Hmmm, I wonder if this is why the iPhone has no 3G. Maybe they are going to skip 3G and jump directly to 4G. Makes you wonder does it not? 
Thursday, Feb. 15, 2007
by Christian
I wrote an earlier comment about Microsoft and the Daily Show and how Bill Gates seems to have changed. David commented and I read his story about what he believes will happen regarding Vista.
Many people think it is about Google and Apple. I completely disagree! Google will be Google, but this is as good as it is going to get for Google, likewise for Apple, and for many other software companies. Though I do think Microsoft will surge in this market, which of course may seem counter-intuitive.
People are always interested in the next 10 bagger. I think the next 10 bagger will not be a You-Tube, MySpace or Google type company. The next 10 bagger is going to be a company that has a hardware and software play. For example, look at the Wii. It is taking the market by storm because it is new, refreshing and a hardware / software play. When I saw the Wii for the first time I thought, yupe this thing is going sky high!
When I saw the Apple iPhone I did not see a Wii. When I see Google I see rehashed ideas. For example I love news.google.com, but that idea is getting old. When I see Microsoft I see a utility company, but a company that will be here for decades to come.
People who read my blog entries know that I am a fan of Behavioral Finance. I am mentioning this because I want to use the last sentence as a disclaimer.
Here is my grand sweeping statement:
Apple, nice knowing you good bye, Sun interesting language too bad it wont stay, Oracle go sail away.
Yesterday I watched The Daily Show with John Stewart where Bill Gates was a guest. Bill Gates normally is a geeky kind of guy and as many have said has poor presentation skills. What I saw yesterday made me think that the tide has turned. I think Microsoft is here to stay and people will overwhelmingly remember Bill Gates and Microsoft as good person. I think Microsoft will be a legacy that we accept and not regret.
I was listening to Bernake, and then Mr Sanders started the typical leftist propaganda. The Democrats are idiots who are going to self-destruct in about four years. My political leanings are center right liberal libertarian.
The tax cuts that Bush made have raised the hackles of Democrats. Democrats want to nullify the tax cuts. Yet I will argue that Bush was right to make the tax cuts.
I bet you are ready to pounce on me and say, “Only the rich benefit from the tax cuts and they pay so little.” Well, let me tell you a story about morality and being pragmatic.
