There was a new study out that said every child born after 2000 will live to be a 100 years old. I subscribe to a magazine called “Der Aktionaire” and the following alert came out.

Dass die Menschen immer älter werden, ist nicht neu. Die Ergebnisse einer Studie, die deutsche und dänische Forscher vor Kurzem präsentierten, verblüfften dennoch: Die Lebenserwartung in den Industriestaaten steigt so rasant, dass jedes zweite Kind, das seit dem Jahr 2000 geboren wurde, 100 Jahre alt werden könnte.

Mit dem Alter nehmen aber auch Krankheiten wie Demenz oder Diabetes zu - und so steigt auch die Nachfrage nach entsprechenden Therapien; ein Riesengeschäft für die Gesundheitsindustrie. Diese Erkenntnis ist auch auf dem Börsenparkett angekommen, wie der Healthcare-Investment-Monitor 2009/10 belegt.

They are saying that because we are living longer we will need more healthcare. Agreed, but their opinion is that we will need to focus on Diabetes, and Dementia. I don’t agree. What I see instead is the issue of parts wearing out.

Diabetes and Dementia in my opinion are diseases of the time. In the early 1900’s water and cleanliness diseases were the thing to watch for. But these days those diseases have essentially disappeared (cholera, plague, small pox, tuberculosis, etc). And it will be like that for diabetes, since diabetes is a man made problem (for the most part).

Why do I think diabetes for the most part will disappear? We are going to change our eating habits. Whether we like it or not the fat tax is coming, just like it did for cigarettes. Think about it, 50 years ago smoking was pretty much common. Now in 2009 many Western countries are restricting smokers to the point where serious debate on freedom can be made. Yes, yes there is the freedom of the non-smoker. (Disclosure I am a non smoker.) We will in the next 5 years dramatically bring in legislation that will make people lose weight because the health insurance industry will not be able to cope, and governments will refuse to pay.

I think replacements will become more needed as people become healthier. I myself am a bit overweight. But I jog. Though I can only jog every other day. Jogging everyday gives my right knee problems. I have had therapy and my doctor said, “life with it and be careful, or get an operation to discover the problem.” I opted to live with it and be careful.

What I am looking for are companies that specialize in replacing parts that wear out. The human body I don’t think is made to last for a 100 years. That means replacements are the order of the day. Replacements could be hips, other joints, eyes, ears, what have you.