Comments on: Why I Think Apple is a Neutral or a Sell http://www.investorgeeks.com/articles/2009/09/10/why-i-think-apple-is-a-neutral-or-a-sell/ Learning and sharing investment knowledge. Wed, 08 Sep 2010 00:25:17 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.7.1 hourly 1 By: Patrick http://www.investorgeeks.com/articles/2009/09/10/why-i-think-apple-is-a-neutral-or-a-sell/comment-page-1/#comment-932552 Patrick Sat, 26 Sep 2009 11:52:57 +0000 http://www.investorgeeks.com/articles/2009/09/10/why-i-think-apple-is-a-neutral-or-a-sell/#comment-932552 My favorite money management method is reverse pyramiding using fractal trend-breakout signals to add on, so the starter position is the only one where discretion and tape-reading apply. If I'm not trying to be early or I want to play multiple markets, for example in late 2010 or 2011 I'm going to want to follow trends in most commodities I imagine, then I'll buy a small deep-out options position as a finish line and another small one nearer the money as something to actually exercise should the thing manifest, that way I don't have to manage all these petty stops when the given market is still bottoming or topping in the other direction. But I can understand why you like the short-side psychologically. As the Beatles said: "tiiiiiiiime is on your side, yes it is!" My favorite money management method is reverse pyramiding using fractal trend-breakout signals to add on, so the starter position is the only one where discretion and tape-reading apply. If I’m not trying to be early or I want to play multiple markets, for example in late 2010 or 2011 I’m going to want to follow trends in most commodities I imagine, then I’ll buy a small deep-out options position as a finish line and another small one nearer the money as something to actually exercise should the thing manifest, that way I don’t have to manage all these petty stops when the given market is still bottoming or topping in the other direction.

But I can understand why you like the short-side psychologically. As the Beatles said: “tiiiiiiiime is on your side, yes it is!”

]]> By: Christian http://www.investorgeeks.com/articles/2009/09/10/why-i-think-apple-is-a-neutral-or-a-sell/comment-page-1/#comment-932495 Christian Sat, 26 Sep 2009 07:43:05 +0000 http://www.investorgeeks.com/articles/2009/09/10/why-i-think-apple-is-a-neutral-or-a-sell/#comment-932495 Yes different strokes. Actually I have tried playing options from the long side and have to say I actually hate it. I truly do prefer the short side. Yes different strokes. Actually I have tried playing options from the long side and have to say I actually hate it. I truly do prefer the short side.

]]> By: Patrick http://www.investorgeeks.com/articles/2009/09/10/why-i-think-apple-is-a-neutral-or-a-sell/comment-page-1/#comment-932243 Patrick Fri, 25 Sep 2009 20:29:43 +0000 http://www.investorgeeks.com/articles/2009/09/10/why-i-think-apple-is-a-neutral-or-a-sell/#comment-932243 We have very different attitudes toward trading. I´m of the camp that you never sell options and buying gamma is the best long-term strategy. I also love playing the short-side, particularly in futures where I can margin through and am not limited to 100%. Different strokes. We have very different attitudes toward trading. I´m of the camp that you never sell options and buying gamma is the best long-term strategy. I also love playing the short-side, particularly in futures where I can margin through and am not limited to 100%. Different strokes.

]]> By: Christian http://www.investorgeeks.com/articles/2009/09/10/why-i-think-apple-is-a-neutral-or-a-sell/comment-page-1/#comment-932235 Christian Fri, 25 Sep 2009 19:47:30 +0000 http://www.investorgeeks.com/articles/2009/09/10/why-i-think-apple-is-a-neutral-or-a-sell/#comment-932235 Would I short Apple? No, but then again I don't play the short side. Unless I am selling premium. Regarding sales and Apple. I don't disagree that Apple will continue to sell, but not at the brisk pace that they have been. Look at what happened to RIMM. Pretty good earnings for any company. BUT for a high flying tech company not enough. RIMM was hammered hard. I was long RIMM, and sold at a slightly higher level than today, and still made out with a 50% profit. Am I pessimistic on RIMM? Not really... Just that the price levels are not warranted. Will Apple earnings be good? Probably. Good enough for the market? There I wonder. Would I short Apple? No, but then again I don’t play the short side. Unless I am selling premium.

Regarding sales and Apple. I don’t disagree that Apple will continue to sell, but not at the brisk pace that they have been. Look at what happened to RIMM. Pretty good earnings for any company. BUT for a high flying tech company not enough. RIMM was hammered hard. I was long RIMM, and sold at a slightly higher level than today, and still made out with a 50% profit. Am I pessimistic on RIMM? Not really… Just that the price levels are not warranted.

Will Apple earnings be good? Probably. Good enough for the market? There I wonder.

]]> By: Beekums http://www.investorgeeks.com/articles/2009/09/10/why-i-think-apple-is-a-neutral-or-a-sell/comment-page-1/#comment-928210 Beekums Thu, 17 Sep 2009 03:01:18 +0000 http://www.investorgeeks.com/articles/2009/09/10/why-i-think-apple-is-a-neutral-or-a-sell/#comment-928210 I think the biggest problem with Apple stock besides the high P/E is that most investors believe that Steve Jobs is Apple. Even if Apple is completely functional without Jobs, if he leaves Apple then the stock will drop. I think Steve Jobs needs to have a clear succession plan and delegate some responsibility so that investors can have confidence in the company when he leaves. I think the biggest problem with Apple stock besides the high P/E is that most investors believe that Steve Jobs is Apple. Even if Apple is completely functional without Jobs, if he leaves Apple then the stock will drop. I think Steve Jobs needs to have a clear succession plan and delegate some responsibility so that investors can have confidence in the company when he leaves.

]]> By: foxxx333 http://www.investorgeeks.com/articles/2009/09/10/why-i-think-apple-is-a-neutral-or-a-sell/comment-page-1/#comment-925722 foxxx333 Fri, 11 Sep 2009 13:13:56 +0000 http://www.investorgeeks.com/articles/2009/09/10/why-i-think-apple-is-a-neutral-or-a-sell/#comment-925722 Those toying with the idea to short Apple should have considered that move when the share price was last above 170 -- about a year ago. Apple's earnings will continue to generate 25% to 35% growth year over year. First, iPhone sales will continue to increase. Second, margins on iPhones have increased year over year. Because of subscription accounting, prior years'GM will replaced with current higher margins. This alone could account for sufficient growth in reported earnings to maintain current P/E ratios. Third, Mac sales will continue to grow driven part by iPhone success (continuing halo effect). Finally, Apple is gaining sales among corporations. And don't forget that Apple is also a software company. We need to hear from naysayers to keep us aware of potential pitfalls, but now is not the time to go short. Those toying with the idea to short Apple should have considered that move when the share price was last above 170 — about a year ago. Apple’s earnings will continue to generate 25% to 35% growth year over year. First, iPhone sales will continue to increase. Second, margins on iPhones have increased year over year. Because of subscription accounting, prior years’GM will replaced with current higher margins. This alone could account for sufficient growth in reported earnings to maintain current P/E ratios. Third, Mac sales will continue to grow driven part by iPhone success (continuing halo effect). Finally, Apple is gaining sales among corporations. And don’t forget that Apple is also a software company. We need to hear from naysayers to keep us aware of potential pitfalls, but now is not the time to go short.

]]> By: Patrick http://www.investorgeeks.com/articles/2009/09/10/why-i-think-apple-is-a-neutral-or-a-sell/comment-page-1/#comment-925311 Patrick Thu, 10 Sep 2009 20:55:37 +0000 http://www.investorgeeks.com/articles/2009/09/10/why-i-think-apple-is-a-neutral-or-a-sell/#comment-925311 Funny, earlier today I was looking at an AAPL chart and thinking it looked like an epic wave B, very short-able. Funny, earlier today I was looking at an AAPL chart and thinking it looked like an epic wave B, very short-able.

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