Archive for August, 2008
Ok what to do with Russia? It seems that there is a new power struggle yes? Between the West and Russia, yes?
Well, not so quick. My brother who works in Russia and keeps me up to date with the events within the land has a different story. Essentially what is happening in Georgia is very similar to what happened with Kosovo. The difference is that Kosovo wanted to be nearer to the West and the Georgian states want to be nearer to Russia. But we can debate this issue round and round and round.
The real question is what do you do with Russia? Answer it depends on your nationality.
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Wednesday, Aug. 27, 2008
by Christian
Fastmoney and many on CNBC say, "oh look how bad things are in Germany and how we are doing better. And how bad things will get in Europe"
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Tuesday, Aug. 26, 2008
by Christian
"Debit cards are making us more resilient in this recession… oh wait.. let me take that back…"
Friday, Aug. 22, 2008
by Christian
CNBC did an entire 3 hour expose on Buffett and I.O.U.USA. Well I don’t agree with everything. Two of his points that stuck with me are as follows:
- When the tide goes out you will see who is swimming naked, and it seems Wallstreet was a nudist beach.
- If you apply for a mortgage using the old yardsticks then you can get a mortgage.
These two points stuck in my mind because I have talked to quite a few people around this planet and asked, "is it that bad?" The answer is no, it is not that bad. BUT there is a caveat. If the person was conservative and did not buy two or three houses then all is ok. If however the people lived beyond their means then things are not great. Quite a few of those asked, including my wife and I are actually grateful for this downdraft because we could buy homes without paying an outrageous fee. One friend who lives in San Francisco said, "you know it is good that this happened since now we can a house." Meaning they were on the sidelines until now. This information re-affirms my thinking that it is the rich and leveraged that are having lots of problems.
The second issue and it ties into the first is that the creative financing of the past is done for. People will need to save and live within their means. Though this is less of a problem outside of North America, then inside North America.
I am a bullish on the future! Of course I am not buying caviar, and salmon. I am still buying my hotdog’s on special with sauerkraut.
Friday, Aug. 22, 2008
by Christian
Oil is up over 5 dollars, and why is that? It’s Russia! It’s Fay and its potential to hit something! Oh it’s the rebels in Nigeria that are being rebellious!
WHATEVER!!!
Want to know why oil is up? It’s because Goldman said the following:
LONDON, Aug 20 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs (GS.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) reiterated on Wednesday its year-end price forecast of $149 a barrel for U.S. crude oil, and said strong fundamentals were a more important factor than a strengthening dollar.
And what do the lemming fund managers do? Oh they buy oil, because Goldman said it would go up. But of course a fund manager can’t say that. They have to say, "hey it is the rebelious rebels of Nigeria that are the problems."
Lemmings! That’s right, all of you fund managers are lemmings! Folks I have become completely disgusted with these overpaid fund managers. Heck you can get these returns by just investing in ETF’s and waiting for some comments from Goldman or what have you.
But this oil spike will be short lived because there is real demand destruction. People have changed habits and they will use less oil. EVEN in China!
Thursday, Aug. 21, 2008
by Christian
I have two points in this blog entry; analysts that annoy me, and fund managers have capitulated.
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Wednesday, Aug. 20, 2008
by Christian
It looks like CNBC America is playing with their cast of hosts and giving fresh blood some air time! Good for you CNBC America! Good for you for trying! You make me want to watch CNBC America again!
Monday, Aug. 18, 2008
by Christian
In a blog posting Jason asks what he is missing regarding Garmin. My answer is that he is missing nothing! This is one those stocks where I was burnt because I jumped in too earlier (still long and will wait this storm out). BUT my basic premise of GPS which I have commented on many times stays.
So why is Garmin down? Because they missed by a bit! The real problem with Garmin is their short interest. Garmin has been on the RegSHO list for 60 days and is naked shorted to the hilt! (Hey SEC you are doing fine, but wake up and start handing out fines!) Garmin has 10 days of volume in short interest. It is absolutely insane!
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Monday, Aug. 18, 2008
by Christian
Today CNBC America put Rick Santelli, Steve Liesman, and a few other floor commentators into the prime seat of Squawk Box… All I can say is wow! Cool! Now CNBC America has real intelligent discussion on Squawkbox…. Yeah I am one of those people who was sad to see Mark Haines leave Squawkbox.
Folks if you think CNBC America should keep this or make changes send comments to Squawkbox at cnbc.com. CNBC does listen to emails and to their audience. I know because I am a platinum member of their feedback pool. They regularly send me polls and questionnaires to fill out.
Monday, Aug. 18, 2008
by Christian
At $35, Google Finance puts the Garmin PE at ~8.5. That’s just too low for a company with 25% annual growth.
I made some money riding this stock from about $45 to $80. I kicked myself for not holding it to $120. I bought some up there and was quickly stopped out for a small loss. And now I’m glad I haven’t owned it for a while and have a chance to back up the truck.
Before I do so, I wonder if anyone out there can tell me what I’m missing. Here are some reasons for the low GRMN price I’m reading on message boards and blogs:
