InvestorGeeks

Why I Waited To Comment On The 50 Basis Cut

by Christian

Whenever I am way off the mark I take a step back, watch and think. It is hard for me to be this way off the mark with respect to the Fed. I was wrong, and I mean WAY wrong on Bernanke’s and the Fed’s decision on how their decision (1,2,3).

When I am this way off I figure that I must have missed something. I must have not considered a certain factor. Thus I need to see how things play out. And what I privately feared with the 50 basis cut is coming true. I thought that they would not cut 50 basis points due to the ramifications of a weak dollar.

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My Fed Rate Guess, No Cut 45%, 25 Cut 35%, 50 Cut 20%

by Christian

I listened to Bernanke speak live at the German Bundesbank and I REALLY liked his speech. I am going to cut Bernanke some slack.

Listening to his talk here is my guess on what Bernanke and maybe the Fed will do next.

• 25 basis point cut - 35%: If he cuts he will give a stern talking that this is not the start of a series of cuts.
• No cut - 45%: He will say that he is watching the market closely and will react if , and he will say that he is watching the market closely and will react very quickly if things go wrong.
• 50 basis point cut - 20%: I not guessing he will do this.

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The IceBerg Order

by Christian

TraderFeed, and bzbtrader have been talking about how large orders are split into smaller orders. TraderFeed wrote:

In other words, if you were to simply look at trades and trade volume, you’d conclude that small traders were dominating the marketplace. The reality is, however, that large traders continue to hold sway, but have succeeded in disguising their presence.

This is not new, and in fact my broker supports it and calls it the iceberg order. I talked to some Investment Banking folks and they told the iceberg order is pretty run of the mill type stuff.

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Case Study: DELL Earnings August 31, 2007

by Christian

Dell posted earnings that seemed pretty good and yet the stock dropped. Right after the earnings report the general opinion was as follows.

Dell said the strong results in the quarter reflected strength in enterprise products and services, improved average selling prices and favorable component costs.

The company did not provide specific guidance, but did say near-term results could be hurt by a slower decline in component costs in the second half.

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