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]]> by: EZ http://www.investorgeeks.com/articles/2007/08/08/patterns-in-random-numbers/#comment-137086 Sat, 11 Aug 2007 05:23:06 +0000 http://www.investorgeeks.com/articles/2007/08/08/patterns-in-random-numbers/#comment-137086 Great article. I would definitely agree. It seems that a fundamental philosophical tenet technical analysts or chartists hold is that market does not adjust to information as rapidly as we would think, meaning it is not really an 'efficient' market. As a result, they can supposedly recognize these patterns and potentially incur great profits. I don't have any experience with this kind of thing, but it seems absurd that besides charting, a quantitative model could take into account the subjective human element where it would have to account for the reactions of a multitude of investors in real time. Burton Malkiel in 'A Random Walk Down Wall Street' mentioned how a coin flip developed what I believe was a 'Head and Shoulders' pattern. He then proceeded to show this to a chartist who excitedly said it should be purchased immediately. Needless to say, the chartist was pretty pissed off when they found out it was produced by a coin flip! It's also interesting to note the trend with some of these MIT Physicists turned Hedge Fund managers turn up on the Street. Let's face it, particles abide by certain fundamental laws of physics, unlike the behavior of the masses, so I'm interested in how exactly they are applying their expertise. Great article. I would definitely agree. It seems that a fundamental philosophical tenet technical analysts or chartists hold is that market does not adjust to information as rapidly as we would think, meaning it is not really an ‘efficient’ market. As a result, they can supposedly recognize these patterns and potentially incur great profits.

I don’t have any experience with this kind of thing, but it seems absurd that besides charting, a quantitative model could take into account the subjective human element where it would have to account for the reactions of a multitude of investors in real time. Burton Malkiel in ‘A Random Walk Down Wall Street’ mentioned how a coin flip developed what I believe was a ‘Head and Shoulders’ pattern. He then proceeded to show this to a chartist who excitedly said it should be purchased immediately. Needless to say, the chartist was pretty pissed off when they found out it was produced by a coin flip!

It’s also interesting to note the trend with some of these MIT Physicists turned Hedge Fund managers turn up on the Street. Let’s face it, particles abide by certain fundamental laws of physics, unlike the behavior of the masses, so I’m interested in how exactly they are applying their expertise.

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