Comments on: Retreat! http://www.investorgeeks.com/articles/2007/07/24/retreat/ Learning and sharing investment knowledge. Fri, 10 Oct 2008 23:42:28 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.0.4 by: free seven card stud game http://www.investorgeeks.com/articles/2007/07/24/retreat/#comment-268441 Sat, 16 Feb 2008 09:02:26 +0000 http://www.investorgeeks.com/articles/2007/07/24/retreat/#comment-268441 <strong>free seven card stud game...</strong> bureaucracy rogues admonitions reexamined guarding:... free seven card stud game…

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]]> by: Phil http://www.investorgeeks.com/articles/2007/07/24/retreat/#comment-127299 Thu, 26 Jul 2007 17:18:21 +0000 http://www.investorgeeks.com/articles/2007/07/24/retreat/#comment-127299 You are exactly right in what you say about SDS. I try not to look at it technically, but work off the S&P500 chart. I have watched it for about a month - it doesn't always move 2x, sometimes it is more like 1.5x. Also, I wouldn't want to hold this for longer than 2 months. In the long run, this is going to flatline close to $0. I am not sure what they will do then (reissue it at a new index price of $100 and let it fall all over again? Or leave it so that we are buying in at 50c). In either case, it does serve a good purpose in times like these. Overall, I'm not short the market, I'm very close to neutral, which is exactly where I want to be. Whether I am right or wrong, I am out of the market for the next 2 or 3 months. :) Phil You are exactly right in what you say about SDS. I try not to look at it technically, but work off the S&P500 chart. I have watched it for about a month - it doesn’t always move 2x, sometimes it is more like 1.5x.

Also, I wouldn’t want to hold this for longer than 2 months. In the long run, this is going to flatline close to $0. I am not sure what they will do then (reissue it at a new index price of $100 and let it fall all over again? Or leave it so that we are buying in at 50c).

In either case, it does serve a good purpose in times like these. Overall, I’m not short the market, I’m very close to neutral, which is exactly where I want to be. Whether I am right or wrong, I am out of the market for the next 2 or 3 months. :)

Phil

]]> by: Phil http://www.investorgeeks.com/articles/2007/07/24/retreat/#comment-127281 Thu, 26 Jul 2007 16:35:53 +0000 http://www.investorgeeks.com/articles/2007/07/24/retreat/#comment-127281 I'm in at $54. It's not where I wanted to get in, and the market may rise again tomorrow, but I think the break down below 1590 is a bad sign for the S&P500 from here on in for the next few months. The 6 month chart to me says "market top in". I’m in at $54.

It’s not where I wanted to get in, and the market may rise again tomorrow, but I think the break down below 1590 is a bad sign for the S&P500 from here on in for the next few months.

The 6 month chart to me says “market top in”.

]]> by: If You Haven’t Figured It Out Yet, I’m a Confused Trader on InvestorGeeks http://www.investorgeeks.com/articles/2007/07/24/retreat/#comment-126498 Wed, 25 Jul 2007 14:32:31 +0000 http://www.investorgeeks.com/articles/2007/07/24/retreat/#comment-126498 [...] Maybe it’s all the green on the screen so far… but already after looking through things a bit more, I a am less bleak than I was earlier. I had commented on Philip John’s last post that after yesterday’s sell-off, I was ready to sell into today’s bounce to move to about 75% cash from 10% cash. [...] […] Maybe it’s all the green on the screen so far… but already after looking through things a bit more, I a am less bleak than I was earlier. I had commented on Philip John’s last post that after yesterday’s sell-off, I was ready to sell into today’s bounce to move to about 75% cash from 10% cash. […]

]]> by: Jason Coleman http://www.investorgeeks.com/articles/2007/07/24/retreat/#comment-126433 Wed, 25 Jul 2007 12:34:26 +0000 http://www.investorgeeks.com/articles/2007/07/24/retreat/#comment-126433 One last follow up. Maybe I should post the SDS chart, but looking at it the 30DMA was broken through yesterday. Ideally, I would look for an open and close above it to confirm... then load as much money as possible into it. That's if this was a normal stock. The problem is I can't really make any fundamental or value decisions about a short of the S&P (can I?). What's a good price for this fund? How do I know if it's over-values or under-valued. All I know is in general this fund is going to lose about 4-9% per year on average (or twice that if it's leveraged) because that's the historical gain of the S&P. So, needless to say, this fund should only be traded in the short-mid term. It's kind of like buying a stock of a company that you know is going to go out of business, but might have a shorterm bounce due to overselling. Strange stuff that doesn't fit into my quasi-investing quasi-trading technique. One last follow up. Maybe I should post the SDS chart, but looking at it the 30DMA was broken through yesterday. Ideally, I would look for an open and close above it to confirm… then load as much money as possible into it. That’s if this was a normal stock.

The problem is I can’t really make any fundamental or value decisions about a short of the S&P (can I?). What’s a good price for this fund? How do I know if it’s over-values or under-valued. All I know is in general this fund is going to lose about 4-9% per year on average (or twice that if it’s leveraged) because that’s the historical gain of the S&P.

So, needless to say, this fund should only be traded in the short-mid term. It’s kind of like buying a stock of a company that you know is going to go out of business, but might have a shorterm bounce due to overselling. Strange stuff that doesn’t fit into my quasi-investing quasi-trading technique.

]]> by: Jason Coleman http://www.investorgeeks.com/articles/2007/07/24/retreat/#comment-126431 Wed, 25 Jul 2007 12:30:19 +0000 http://www.investorgeeks.com/articles/2007/07/24/retreat/#comment-126431 BTW, the SDS play is ballsy. (is it 2x leveraged too?) I don't know if I would short the market. I'm tempted to "lock-in" about a 20% gain for the year, but I'm not too big a fan of "locking-in". I mean, when are you going to put your money back in? January 1st. Are the trading opportunities going to be better then than now. Unless you are a hedge fund (who gets paid based on annual performance) or have some plans for your money, it doesn't make sense to lock in. That said. If I looked at SDS as a normal stock. It looks like it's due for a buy. It's trading at about $52 now, and I could set a short-term target of $56. Nice gain. Maybe I should add index-based shorting to my repetoir. BTW, the SDS play is ballsy. (is it 2x leveraged too?) I don’t know if I would short the market.

I’m tempted to “lock-in” about a 20% gain for the year, but I’m not too big a fan of “locking-in”. I mean, when are you going to put your money back in? January 1st. Are the trading opportunities going to be better then than now. Unless you are a hedge fund (who gets paid based on annual performance) or have some plans for your money, it doesn’t make sense to lock in.

That said. If I looked at SDS as a normal stock. It looks like it’s due for a buy. It’s trading at about $52 now, and I could set a short-term target of $56. Nice gain. Maybe I should add index-based shorting to my repetoir.

]]> by: Jason Coleman http://www.investorgeeks.com/articles/2007/07/24/retreat/#comment-126425 Wed, 25 Jul 2007 12:24:40 +0000 http://www.investorgeeks.com/articles/2007/07/24/retreat/#comment-126425 I'm away on vacation now and was checking in on the market using my phone every once in a while. Everything looked pretty decent a little pullback... then when I checked after the market close: BLAM! Just about all of my mutual funds and index funds are throwing sell signals for me. About half of my stock holdings are. I think I'm with you. I'm going to try to jump out of everything at a decent level today. If all goes well, I'll be about 75% cash (vs about 15% cash right now). I hope we're not over-reacting. I don't think this is the end of days, but I do think we'll see more follow through with this pullback than some previous. Simply for the fact that we're up a bit higher, and some real technical levels have broken. I’m away on vacation now and was checking in on the market using my phone every once in a while. Everything looked pretty decent a little pullback… then when I checked after the market close: BLAM!

Just about all of my mutual funds and index funds are throwing sell signals for me. About half of my stock holdings are. I think I’m with you. I’m going to try to jump out of everything at a decent level today. If all goes well, I’ll be about 75% cash (vs about 15% cash right now).

I hope we’re not over-reacting. I don’t think this is the end of days, but I do think we’ll see more follow through with this pullback than some previous. Simply for the fact that we’re up a bit higher, and some real technical levels have broken.

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