Archive for May, 2007
I’m getting back into trading a bit. Here are my watchlist notes from yesterday. Be warned, I’m a total hack. Even I’m going to do more research before using this stuff. Comments appreciated.
AMD
- Buy now. Watch intraday for bounce. Supports at $15, $13.50, $10. Half now, half on dip?
ERTS
- Buy soon. 10DMA at $50, 30DMA at $51. Then all arrows green. 1-year chart looks brutal. Support at $48.Resistance at $55. Break through that looks goot.
EBAY
- Hipegg says buy.Short-term down. Buy at $34 (30DMA). Support from 200DMA at $31.
QQQQ
- Very bullish. Look for intraday pullback and put the money in.
These are all tech-related because… well… I know tech better. Buy what you know. My IRA and other portfolios are mostly in index funds right now, so this is all “play money” or “mad money” or “risky biz portfolio” stuff. I’m most excited about QQQQ and ERTS. I think they’re a bit safer, but that doesn’t mean anything.
Also, congrats to the folks who stuck it out with KRY (not me). I’d be taking some profits in the $5 range.
UPDATE: I’ve bought 90 shares of QQQQ with my trading account and 50 shares of ERTS with my IRA. Peace.
Tuesday, May. 22, 2007
by Jason
In the middle of March I had an inkling that all was not well with my thinking. My thinking was that the market would pullback and that the global economy would slow down. Well I was wrong, and in the referenced blog entry I talked about what my head told me, and what my gut was telling me. It seems that my gut was telling me the right thing. As a result I have become a bear in bull’s clothing. This means I grudgingly accept the bull rally, but I don’t like it one bit!
The problem is inflation and getting it under control. Yes we can argue about how to measure inflation, but the reality is that there is inflation and I see it everyday in our pocket books. Low inflation, or virtually no inflation is good for the economy because it keeps the economy efficient. I had a gut feeling that Bernake was an inflation dove and cared more about the well being of the individual people. (more…)
Friday, May. 18, 2007
by Christian
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A little birdie was telling me that recently London has become the largest exchange hosting foreign companies. It is now bigger to New York and preferred to simpler regulations. The WSJ talked about this about a year or so ago as did International Tribune this year. .
The little birdie said, “point the finger at Sarbanes Oxley.” So I guess WSJ was correct, and the problem is that Sarbanes Oxley is too much regulation? Well not quite, again the little birdie said, “the bigger problem is that you can go to jail all too easily and that scares the bezeers out of management. London is laxer about these sorts of things!”
Hmmm, I know from a quant developer perspective there seems to be more jobs and more going-ons in Europe (ok London). Sign of the things to come in the future? I wonder? My wife is already complaining, “but I hate the weather!”
Wednesday, May. 16, 2007
by Christian
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I was reading a blog entry on CPPTrader that was referencing an article from Bloomberg. I am a newbie with respect to trading, but with respect to AI I have been a few times around the block. It was something that I studied in University and have had an attraction to for a long time. I guess I am lazy and would love to write a program that “thinks” for me. As a sidenote I am using AI in my algorithmic trading software, but in a different context.
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Wednesday, May. 16, 2007
by Christian
Colin brought up the following point:
Christian, it is extremely interesting to read your thoughts on neural nets. I’ve been looking at Neural Nets in a piece of software called Merchant of Venice - http://mov.sourceforge.net/ . Beyond that, what’s interesting is that as humans, we can look at current day situations and have an innate sense that history is repeating itself, yet there are these outlying situations that break those rules - like Amazon’s recent performance.
How to put that “sense” into code and avoid getting burned by the outliers is the real rub
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Tuesday, May. 8, 2007
by Christian
Tom gave a reply that I think deserves more attention. Tom made the following comment to one of my blog entries.
One more thing, if the market is random per the stochastic process and you can’t find patterns in a market where patterns don’t exist, then why do we have trends? A trend is a pattern in my opinion.
If you look at the definition of stochastic process at wikipedia it does not say random as in completely random walk. What the definition is saying is that at each and every point multiple realities can occur.
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Tuesday, May. 8, 2007
by Christian
