Comments on: Mr. Market has no love for Garmin (GRMN)

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by: Alan

Sat, 19 Aug 2006 05:55:19 +0000

As a non-analyst but former Garmin employee, I can lend some insight to the situation. My insight is that there is absolutely no explanation why Garmin’s success has not translated to an even more meteoric rise in the stock price. As a matter of fact, here’s a quiet tip: wait until the next quarterly report to buy Garmin. The price has dropped anywhere from 1-6% the day following the earnings report every quarter for the last 7 quarters. It’s like the market can’t believe they are STILL doing good. Like they are just waiting for the bottom to fall out. They have something around 5 quarters over the past NINE YEARS (going back to pre-IPO) in which it wasn’t the best quarter in the company’s history. Some might say that it is nothing more than an indicator of the down-side to come. I believe, and agree with Dan above, the analysis are conservatively predicting now what will probably be another 2-5 years to come.
And believe everything you read about Garmin management. The culture has been built on under-promising and over-delivering. If they say they will do it, you better believe they will - and then some. The company was built on Gary Burrell and his vision and ethic. Once he retired, rather than fade with his legacy, the company saw it as an opportunity to build upon by shedding his mild conservatism and going on the offensive. Case in point:
-Garmin’s NFL Sunday commercials to combat Tom-Tom’s marketing outburst,
-the recent addition of a company retail outlet on Michigan Ave. in Chicago (right between Nike and I-Pod),
-the purchase of UPSAT to strengthen their already dominant aviation division,
-the compilation of second-tier OEM deals (BMW/Harley/Honda motorcycles, Budget/Avis rent-a-car, Cessna/Diamond/Honda/Cirrus aircraft, Chrysler aftermarket, etc)
-the purchase of website “MotionBase” to strengthen the fitness market,
-the addition (doubling) of manufacturing capacity in Taiwan,
bringing suit against Tom-Tom for patent infringement,
need I go on???

Believe me, this is not blind faith. I kept waiting for the bottom to fall out. Every time I think you can’t package a GPS in any other form possible, and thus their competitive differentiator as “innovator” potentially lost, they break the mold and grab another piece of the market, build on a piece they have, or invent a market out of thin air. Not to mention their combined markets are still a fraction of the worldwide potential of all GPS possibilities. I’m still waiting for them to reach up and grab the most obvious and largest opportunity dangling in front of them for the near future… As soon as they land a contract for an in-dash navigation system with a major automotive OEM, they’ll leave the atmosphere.

(then maybe we can start talking about falling stars…)

by: CrossProfit

Fri, 11 Aug 2006 20:27:15 +0000

Time will tell if you are right. In the meantime take a look at this;

http://stocksadvice.blogspot.com/

“… the earnings and guidance were phenomenal. But considering this stock is up so much when the market has been in doldrums most of the year, the market expected nothing short of a miracle from Garmin…”

Also on the macro scene a recession is on the table again as signaled by the Fed’s pause.
See;

http://247wallst.blogspot.com/2006/08/save-world-economy-on-your-own-time.html

Disclosure: This is a personal comment by a CrossProfit analyst and may not reflect the opinion of CrossProfit.com.
http://www.crossprofit.com

by: Dan

Wed, 09 Aug 2006 18:51:48 +0000

About 3.5 million outstanding (out of 109 million). Grants are 300k-500k/quarter. It looks like the company is buying back stock at or slightly higher than the rate at which it is granting options.
Dilution impacts the earnings by 1-2 cents per share.

by: Doug

Wed, 09 Aug 2006 09:40:02 +0000

How many options outstanding does the company have? How many are being granted annually? How is the trend of options grants developing? Given the rise in price that is expected, these all have to be added to the common.

by: Dan

Wed, 09 Aug 2006 05:42:01 +0000

Shipment to distributers (as is common for similar companies).

by: Vince

Wed, 09 Aug 2006 04:58:40 +0000

Hi Dan,

Do you have any insight as to how Garmin books its revenue? Upon shipment to distributors? or using another method (upon sale)? Just wondering about the timing of their revenue booking.

On a side note, me being from Singapore. The “slang” for Government is “Garmen” or “Garmin” however you spell it as in “The Garmin doesn’t listen to the people” =)