For the past couple weeks, Jim Cramer’s been talking up the stock of the Canadian mining company Crystallex International Corporation (AMEX:KRY) on his radio and TV shows. The thesis on this company is based around Las Cristinas, a gold mine in Venezuela owned but not yet mined by the company. But that situation should change soon as all but one of the Venezuelan government agencies required have granted permission for Crystallex to tap the mine.
The last of these permits is expected soon. An active gold mine would bring many jobs to the country, which is starving for employment.
Why should we care about Las Cristinas and Crystallex? Because the current evaluation does not price in the full potential of the mine, one of the largest untapped gold mines in the world. Gold demand and gold prices are rising steeply and if the Las Cristinas mine comes online for Crystallex, they stand to make a lot of money. Cramer’s estimation is that the stock’s price should be somewhere between $12-$15 assuming the mine works out.
So I have to admit. I’ve bitten on this one. Cramer’s argument is sound. I’m a casual follower of the Mad Money television show and Real Money radio show, and I’ve never seen or heard Jim back a stock trade so emphatically.
It’s hard to trade on Cramer’s recommendations. A stock is likely to raise 25% or more the day after he backs it on Mad Money. It seems his radio show still has a slightly smaller following; so you’d have better luck listening there if you are keen to buy on his recommendations right away.
I’d like to say that I got in on the trade before Jim’s monologue on Mad Money April 6th, after which the stock jumped over $1 in after-hours trading, but I didn’t. That’s okay I thought: $5.50 is still far below the $12 we can expect this stock to rise too. Still, I like to buy on a pull back. So I took a look at the chart for KRY to see how it’s been trading in the past hoping to get some idea of how low it might pull back after Jim’s plug (using my own gut-based technical analysis). Well, no luck there. The stock’s six-month chart is as steady an incline as I’ve ever seen. This stock doesn’t have pull backs.
After some deliberation, I decided to throw my money in at $5.55. I bought just 75 shares, hoping to buy another 75 if there was a major pull back. Since I’ve bought the stock it’s climbed over $6, and then did have a pull back to under $5.30 which I missed (hard to day trade at work). Currently, it’s just shy of $6 at $5.91.
But wait you say, I thought this stock didn’t have pull backs. Well that was then and this is now. With the full attention of the press and the casual market, this stock has a different investor base than it did before. You can expect to see a typical jagged rise as this stock climbs to the expected $10+ region. When the Las Cristinas deal is signed off on, you’ll see another large jump. But, heaven forbid, if the deal is blocked or President Chavez decides to nationalize the mine, we could be looking at a $3 stock again.
So it’s a bit of a gamble, but the story is good. While we wish we all got in when Cramer mentioned the stock on his Real Money radio show (1 day and over $1 before he featured the trade on Mad Money) or even better yet gotten in on the deal back in January, we shouldn’t pass up a possible double or triple just because the stock is already on the up and up.