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What-what…

Back to our regularly scheduled program.

A major part of the new operating system is going to be a greatly improved security system. This alone will encourage a lot of IT and IM departments to switch to Vista. Besides that, we should expect Microsoft to begin phasing out support of Windows 2000 shortly after Vista releases… just like they did with Win95.

I agree with Frank, both in his defense of the new OS and his waiting to see if the price drops some more.

I may have been a little hasty buying at $27; there could be more downside to the Vista delay. But then that’s why I only bought 25 shares. I’m ready to buy 25 more if the price dips below $26. I believe we’d have to see some more bad news before the stock goes below $25.50 again.

You’re also right in saying that people won’t be standing in line at 12:00am to buy the newest OS. There are however many businesses, and consumers who are on the verge of upgrading, many of whom will put off the upgrades until Vista is released.

Vista is the first major upgrade since XP which was released in 2001, and represents as great a change in the underlying architecture, if not greater, than was presented by Windows 2000.
While Vista won’t be the sole driver of new hardware sales, or vice-versa. The release of Vista combined with the upcoming change in architecture will provide a compelling reason to upgrade.

There’s no denying that not everyone will buy a new computer, just for Vista, it’s also unreasonable to expect that people who have new computer won’t upgrade to Vista. So assuming that there is no growth in hardware sold due to Vista, which I seriously doubt, there will be the added revenue of individuals and businesses who will opt to upgrade their current systems.

But even if we look at just what we’re presented with now. Microsoft is a strong company. It has a growth rate of close to 10% TTM. Is expected to grow 15% over the next year and average a growth of 15% over the next 5 years. It’s return on investment approaches 30%. As if that wasn’t enough, even today based on it’s pretty much stagnant stock price, and consisted growth of near 10% the stock is undervalued and would be more faily valued at 34-36 dollars a share, according to most analysts.

In the end I think that at $27 a share Microsoft is a steal, and I’ll be picking some up as soon as possible. Though, I’ll prolly wait a bit and see if it drops much lower, just to add some extra padding.

Everyone will not be forced to upgrade after 2 years. Product support for XP will last a lot longer than that. Many businesses are still on Windows 2000. I know of a very large financial institution that still is, and I doubt Vista is even on their radar.

The reaction from the vast majority of consumers is “who cares?”. There will that small segment that will stand in line to buy it at 12:00 AM, but it won’t be the vast majority.

Many businesses and most people will receive Vista when they decide to buy a new computer. But they won’t be buying a new computer because of Vista.